Monthly Archives: August 2024

A popular mantra of the stock market is “buy low, sell high”. However, when push comes to shove, this strategy is hard to follow. Investors in general are irrational and are driven by their emotions and biases.

Due to the uncertainty in the markets, there is a general belief that markets will keep plummeting and vice versa when markets are rising, reflecting the market psychology. This generally happens when investors fall victim to their own emotions. 

“Financial markets are driven by two powerful emotions, greed and fear,” goes an old proverb. These feelings are so powerful that they can damage not just your personal life but also your financial situation and the process of accumulating riches. These feelings, in addition to prejudices and hearsay, are what lead to market bubbles and subsequent corrections. This is known as the fear and greed cycle in technical terminology. The wealthiest investors are those who can maintain composure under pressure and act sensibly even when the market acts foolishly. Let’s examine the impact of these feelings on investing choices. 

The Power of Greed

In the materialistic society of today, everyone aspires to be wealthy and wants to become wealthy more quickly. People are motivated by greed when markets are rising. Anxious to make as much money as possible as soon as possible, investors become envious of rising prices, which indicate bigger returns. Prices rise to outrageous heights as more and more individuals invest as profits increase. Bubbles form in the market after it reaches these extremely high levels, signifying high market values relative to fundamental values. The bubble eventually pops, leaving investors with losses.

For example, prior to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008–2009, the United States experienced a housing bubble, in which home prices rose to unprecedented heights but the real worth of the homes was significantly lower. As a result, the bubble popped, resulting in a recession and the loss of many people’s houses.

In order to prevent losses in these situations, extreme self-control is needed over emotions like “herd behavior,” “fear of missing out,” and greed. Anyone who wishes to invest sensibly should practice the basic fundamentals of investing. These consist of maintaining a long-term perspective and, on the recommendation of a certified mutual fund distributor, resetting the intended asset allocation.

The Impact of Fear

One may argue that fear and greed are two sides of the same coin. Fear can have a significant impact on the market in a manner similar to how greed can dominate it. When the markets decline sharply, fear is evident in the market. There is a generalized panic in the market when the markets begin to decline. The investors liquidate their holdings to reduce their losses as a result of this panic. They are unaware, though, that the loss does not become apparent until the investment is sold. 

For example, you paid Rs 100 at NAV for ten units of a mutual fund. The value increased to Rs 120 as a result of the market’s avarice and overconfidence. At this moment, the investor’s greed takes over and they want to purchase further units. But the unit price falls to Rs 90 in the next several months. This type of loss is known as a notional loss, and it doesn’t become an actual loss until the sale is decided upon. The investor books a loss in an attempt to stop losing money. A sense of remorse for incurring a loss sets in after a few months when the prices begin to return to average.

Riding the Cycle of Fear and Greed

Benjamin Graham once said, “Those who can’t control their emotions aren’t the best people to invest for.” The stock market’s volatility is symbolized by the concepts of greed and fear. Investors are uncomfortable with these cycles of notional losses and market volatility. As a result, they give in to their feelings and suffer severe losses.

There are certain things we cannot control. You have no influence over the market, any more than you have over the acts of others. Your behaviors, though, are within your control. Whether or not your emotions control you and your behavior is something you can manage. Moreover, the decisions you make in the market will determine whether you make gains or loses. You would be better off not caving in to the sentiment of the prevailing market. It will also represent your irrationality.

One of the hardest things to do is to control your emotions. Differentiating oneself in decision-making is much easier stated than done.

Here are a few tips that can help you refrain from the influence of the dominant market sentiment and make wise decisions. 

Create a Plan

Establishing a clear investing strategy is necessary before beginning any kind of investment. Your financial requirements, risk tolerance, and appetite are all thoroughly examined. It’s crucial to follow the plan after it has been developed and resist giving in to feelings. Leaving your plan early might have negative effects on your portfolio and lower returns, regardless of how the market is feeling. When these preparations aren’t in place, impulsive decisions are made and fear and greed take over. Making the most of your investment will require you to do nothing in spite of the increase and fall in your investments other than adjusting the asset allocation in accordance with the mutual fund distributor’s guidance. 

Invest in Long run

Mutual funds are a fantastic tool for maximizing wealth, but this is something that can only be done over time. It is dangerous to have the mindset that investing in the markets can make you wealthy soon, and you should avoid falling into such scams. You should invest gradually over the long term rather than rashly based on your emotions if you are willing to expand your fortune. Trying to get “stock market tips” or guessing the next “multibagger stock” to make quick money is a big mistake that might wipe out all of your hard-earned money invested in the market. Taking on additional risk in order to attempt to profit from trading or riskier investing channels like futures and options can be Harmful.

Check out portfolio

It is crucial for you to monitor your investment portfolio as a knowledgeable investor. It is essential to regularly analyze your portfolio in order to assess how well your investments are performing in relation to your needs. It’s not necessary to monitor your portfolio every day, but it’s a good idea to do so on a regular basis—for example, every quarter or during periods of really strong market volatility. You now have the chance to examine how well your portfolio fits your risk tolerance. Additionally, one can make analytical choices free from emotional bias, such as deciding whether to rebalance the portfolio. 

Enhancing Knowledge

The process of learning never ends. Gaining some understanding of financial options, such as mutual funds, can be quite beneficial. A mutual fund distributor can provide assistance as it might be challenging to stay current on all of the investment options. Acquiring knowledge of the technical terms might simplify your comprehension of the most recent advancements in the economy. It can be very beneficial to learn from the mistakes made by others, like as the dotcom bubble and the Great Financial Depression of 2008–2009, as well as from the experiences of the greatest, such as Warren Buffet. Refreshing your memory can also assist you in spotting market rumors and preventing hasty actions based on them. Above all, as you go along your financial journey, remember your personal experience.

In conclusion, if you allow feelings like greed and fear to influence your decision-making, they could have a significant effect on your investments. You eventually run the danger of making mistakes because of this. It can be hard not to feel these things when making investment selections. However, with knowledge, experience, conviction, and a sound investing plan, you can progressively start molding yourself into the astute investor you want to be. 

Comparing various investments is normally done on the basis of how well they performed in the end, which is typically expressed as an interest rate or a percentage gain. You should begin to grasp how various measurements of return are computed and how they’re used to assist you analyze your investment/portfolio by reading product literature, brochures, websites, calculators, and more.

In general, calculating the rate of return and comparing the outflows (costs incurred) and inflows (income) from an asset are how returns on investment are determined. The inflows may come from capital gains or losses resulting from a shift in the investment’s value, as well as periodic payouts like interest from fixed income securities, dividends from equity assets, and capital gains. Investors in mutual funds benefit from capital gains and dividends as returns. Almost all funds and investments have performance metrics that are measured using standard return measures, even though the types of returns may vary. 

Types of Return Measures

Let’s look at some of these types of return measures.

Absolute return

The growth or decline in your investment is known as an absolute return. They are given as a value percentage. It is frequently confusing that we do not account for time when computing absolute returns. This technique of computing returns is typically applied to time periods shorter than a year. The investment was first made with Rs. 1,000,000, and its current market value is Rs. 1,40,000. The absolute return in this scenario would be 40%. Absolute returns are frequently used to calculate real estate returns. For example, how many “x” times has the value of your property increased? Since time is not taken into account, absolute returns over a one-year period can frequently be quite misleading; the more time the period, the more misleading the results become.

Annualized Return

The annualized returns on your investment indicate the annual growth in value. One “return” is computed by averaging or spreading the investment’s overall return over a number of years. The inclusion of the compounding impact is one crucial feature of annualized returns. Even if a number doesn’t seem particularly appealing at first, it may have a significant effect on your return over time. This compounding effect is something that investors should consider when examining annualized returns.

Using an example, let’s examine which is superior. 15% five-year annualized returns or 85% absolute returns? People typically believe that 15% times five is 75%, hence 85% is quite significant. But with compounding’s power, 15% yields a far larger effective return of 101.14%. This disparity in returns will increase to startling proportions over time.

Total Return

The total return is the real rate of return on investment after accounting for all types of inflows and appreciation. For equities and mutual funds, capital gains and dividends would be factored into the overall return calculation. When an investment yields numerous streams of income or returns, it is crucial to take the overall returns into account in order to determine the investment’s true value.

Let’s take an example where you invest at Rs. 20 and the price/NAV increases to Rs. 22 after a year. You also received a dividend of Rs. 2 per share or unit at some point during the year. When you add everything up, you will have a profit or return of Rs. 4 and a total return of 20%. 

Return from Point to Point

The point-to-point returns, as their name implies, quantify annualized returns between two points in time. In order to compute the point-to-point returns of a mutual fund scheme, it is imperative to possess a start and end date. Returns are frequently expressed in terms of predetermined timeframes, such as one year, five years, ten years, and so forth. In this case, the “From Date” refers to the time period prior to the “To Date,” which is always the present or the date of the report or computation. Investors should be aware that the selection of “To Date” can significantly impact returns and may or may not accurately reflect the performance or quality of the investment.

Annual Growth Rate Compound (CAGR)

CAGR is a typical mutual fund return that is used to assess a fund’s performance over extended holding periods. CAGR is used for longer periods to produce compounded annual returns, while annualized returns are typically used to convert returns of less than a year to an annual return. When normalizing all of the investment’s highs and lows throughout the course of the time, CAGR takes into account the investment’s start and end values as well as the duration of the investment. It’s crucial to remember that CAGR does not account for numerous cash flows or periodic investments. Therefore, CAGR might not give a clear image if there are several investments made during the year at different times. It functions best when we are thinking about one-time investments on a point-to-point basis.

Internal Rate of Return Extended (XIRR)

Which metric should we use in the event that CAGR is inappropriate and we have various cashflows, such as inflows and outflows as in the case of SIP? The solution is XIRR.

When calculating the returns from a sequence of cash flows, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is a frequently used metric. When calculating returns on assets with numerous cash flows that occur at various times, the extended version of IRR, or XIRR, is utilized. Each cash flow’s CAGR is computed in XIRR and then added together to provide the total CAGR.

Mutual Fund Regulations

In India, there are certain regulations governing what is to be reported regarding plan returns when discussing mutual funds. Significantly, unless it’s an assured returns program, regulations prohibit anyone from making any return promises. According to regulations, the scheme’s benchmark must be used to compare and display the scheme’s performance. When the scheme age is +3 years, point-to-point returns and CAGR as of a certain date must both be revealed. The returns must be computed using the values of the “Total Returns” Index. Documents pertaining to the scheme demonstrate this.

In summary

Once you are aware of these metrics, there are a few considerations to make while assessing investments. First and foremost, you must compare like products; that is, the product categories you are comparing ought to be the same (the time frame and measurement also matter). Another thing to keep in mind is that previous returns might or might not occur again. Although returns play a significant role in decisions, they are not the primary one. It is also necessary to take into account a person’s risk tolerance and investing goals, as well as their readiness to take on risks, liquidity, and short-term versus long-term investment demands. Your success as an investor will depend on your comprehension of all these variables, not just returns.

The millennial generation faces particular financial concerns that can often feel overwhelming in today’s fast-paced and constantly changing environment. It is easy for young millennials to forget the value of investing in the rush to succeed in this fast-paced environment. Even if young adults are considering investing, the deluge of information available to them frequently leaves them perplexed and wondering where to begin and how.

Those with money or experience are not the only ones who can invest. In order to stay ahead of the curve and meet their financial needs, young adults who are just starting their professions should also begin investing early.

Here are 5 reasons why every millennial should start investing now –

The power of compounding: Long investment horizons provide the greatest opportunity to capitalize on the power of compounding. Because they have so much time on their hands, millennials may make the most of it by starting to invest early. Compounding will provide large returns even on small initial investments over an extended period of time, laying a strong financial foundation for future investments. Millennials can take advantage of compounding over a longer time horizon by starting early, which gives them the chance to see exponential growth on their investment.

Extended investment horizon: Given that millennials are primarily in their late 20s and early 30s, they have a lot of time to smooth out market fluctuations and take advantage of long-term investment opportunities. To put things into perspective, equities mutual funds have returned 16.30% over the past 25 years. This means that if you had invested Rs 1,00,000 25 years ago, your money would now be worth Rs 60.30 lakh, or a 60x rise (Ace MF, March 2023).

Inflation: According to RBI Internal Research (2023), the average inflation rate over a 20-year period is 5.5%. If your monthly expenses are Rs 40,000 now, in ten years they will be Rs 69,000, after twenty years they will be Rs 1.18 lakh, and after thirty years they will be Rs 2.02 lakh. It is critical to make sufficient investments to outpace inflation. All other asset classes are outperformed by equities mutual funds in terms of producing a high real rate of return.

For example, the real rate of return on gold is only 4.46%, whereas stock mutual funds yield returns of 10.18%. Even after accounting for the effect of taxes, fixed deposits would not even come close to beating inflation.

Low entrance barrier: Since millennials are still starting their careers, they may not have enough money to make large investments. Mutual funds, however, have a relatively low entrance barrier. Starting capital for investors is as low as Rs 500. Additionally, customers have the option to invest small amounts each month through SIP. As a result, even individuals with minimal resources can now invest. 

Satisfying financial needs: Investors might achieve financial fulfillment more quickly if they develop the habit of investing frequently and early. Investors can realize their dreams of launching a business, purchasing a home, or taking a global tour by amassing a sizeable portfolio. Additionally, millennials might arrange an early retirement to enjoy their senior years with loved ones.

In summary, millennials benefit greatly from early investment in terms of securing their financial future. Millennials may best leverage the power of compounding and beat inflation by starting early. Distributors of mutual funds are a good resource for millennials who are just starting to invest. A distributor can assist investors in selecting a mutual fund plan that best suits their needs by helping them match their financial goals with their risk tolerance. Millennials may secure a stable financial future by meeting their requirements for money on time.